Nader, Bush, Brash and Climate Control

Nader has confirmed that he will run for president this year. I think this is going to a good thing. James clearly disagrees with me, and he is right when he says that this election is all about the key battlefield states. I'm looking forward to his argument on his blog. Perhaps he will be more correct than I, and he is certainly a better political scientist than this one time historian hack, but I think there is still a case to be made for Nader's entry.

1) It will continue to moblise Democrat voters. Dean did a good job of this until he withdrew from the race. There is still a danger that the Kerry/Edwards fight will stagnate. Nader could maintain the frenetic pace within the Democrat base by forcing the Democrats to ensure a large Democrat turnout in the key battleground states. Of course, the argument that the base is energised because they hate Bush is valid and I don't see a way to really rebut that charge. Dean harnessed that energy and it is a pity to see him gone.

2)Dean supporters are unlikely to vote for Nader. The main reason is, I believe, that they were so anti-Bush that they will support the man with the best chance of toppling Bush - even if they don't necessarily believe in the Kerry/Edwards policies.

3)This probably goes for the other democrat voters. Those that vote for Nader probably wouldn't vote for the Democrat nominee. For whatever reason they might not see the difference between the Republicans and Democrats, and the fact that Joseph Lieberman is a Democrat is a good example of why some might be wary of the right-wing faction of the Democrats. If Nader's vote is seen in this light, and those who vote for him wouldn't vote for Kerry/Edwards or Bush, then his campaign is relatively harmless or even beneficial for the Democrat machine for the reasons listed above. If the difference between Bush and Kerry/Edwards is, say, 100,000 votes in the key battleground state (Florida etc), and Nader polls 300,000 votes it doesn't necessarily follow that Nader cost the Dems the election.

This is an interesting article which examines the electibility of Kerry and Edwards based on their charm and appeal.

I've head recently that Rumsfeld has created his own intelligence agency which runs parallel with the CIA but haven't been able to find anything on the web about this. It was on BBC world apparently. Keep your eyes out for it because it could be an interesting development in the world of intelligence and lack-thereof. Three competing intelligence agencies?

Looks like the climate change debate is heating up again. The Observer had an interesting article in The Press today that can be found here. I found the whole thing rather exaggerated and fanatical. It's not that I don't believe in global warming, it's just that I don't want to. The fascinating thing about the article is that it originated from the Pentagon. Given Bush's strident anti-environmental protection plan policies, this could be extremely embarrassing for the administration. Climate change could be the next issue of homeland security.

And on a local loco issue, Brash has stated that he will abolish funding for universities that maintain a quota system for Maori students. Which, interestingly enough includes Canterbury, Otago, Auckland and Victoria as their law schools have a quota system.

I think that is as good a note as any to go and do some real work.