I got a comment from someone who has looked at the electoral college in much, much greater detail than I have. It's worth copying into the main blog rather than letting it hide away in a comment - I'm assuming Ed won't mind.

*starts*You may have noticed that the notes to the graph clearly state:

Remember that after some event is in the news, it takes several days before polls taken after it are reported.Well, the day the DNC starts (the marked point on the graph), Kerry has around 288 votes. Shortly after the convention is over, Kerry spikes up, then there's a counter-spike for Bush, then it settles down -- at 307 for Kerry.

How exactly, do you interpret this as the Republicans doing well?

What they've done very well is to spin the whole question of Kerry's "convention bounce", first by raising expectations of how high it would be, and then by looking for it too soon after the convention was over.

Now that sufficient time has passed, you can see the results of the Kery bounce in (1) his increased favorables in the internals of all the polls, and (2) the fact that in 13 different polling circumstances (9 polling organizations, 5 polls involving likely voters and 8 involving registered voters) Kerry leads in 11 of the 13 and is tied with Bush in 1. In only 1 poll (the CNN/USAToday/Gallup, which was the first released after the convention), does Bush, the incumbent president, with all the advantages that brings, lead, and then by only 4 points, while Kerry's leads average almost 5 1/2 (5.42).

This is a bounce. It may not last long, but it most assuredly is a convention bounce, and it just amazes me that the "bounce boat" having apparently sailed too soon, very few in the media are paying attention.

In any event, for those interested, I've posted my latest survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites here (http://unfutz.blogspot.com/2004/08/electoral-college-survey-87.html).

Executive summary: of the 30 sites surveyed, 22 show Kerry winning, and 5 others show him ahead. Three sites show Bush winning. The approximate average of all sites is Kerry 296 - Bush 242.

And, just to note it, this is a distinct improvement over his standing in the survey I took just before the convention (http://unfutz.blogspot.com/2004/08/electoral-college-survey-81.html). *ends*

You'll have to forgive the lack of tags that were in the original message. I'm typing this on Safari (the browser, not an adventure) and Blogger doesn't provide the easy buttons on the control panel - and I'm no computer geek.

Ed clearly has a much better understanding of the whole system than I do. However, I think I should clarify my position. I wrote that entry a few days after the end of the DNC. When I checked the graph, the Republican had surged about 50 electoral college votes. Given the spin the Republicans have put on the bounce - spin which has entered the mainstream discussion and consciousness - I thinik this can be seen as doing rather well. Since that entry was written Kerry has recovered to 307.

You have to bear in mind I am extremely cynical over the whole election. I'm probably looking at polls, graph, spin and events with an overly unhealthy degree of cynicism. I want Kerry to win the election AND the presidency. But I doubt he will. Remember the cynical prediction one of us made this year/last year? 1) Regan dying. 2) Important figure being captured around DNC. 3) Attack on US soil before election. Draw your own conclusions, but Florida should have taught us all what we can expect in this era of Neoliberalism.

This is one of the only times I've wanted to be wrong. Anyway, visit Ed's site. Pretty damn interesting.