Regenerating Bush
Because I'm not very original, I steal stuff from people who are. It's the highest form of compliment. And plagiarism.... Anyway, it appears that the Republicans have done rather well out of the who DNC. The link goes to a graph which plots the electoral college votes - which, as we all remember, do not necessarily equate to the democratic (no pun intended) votes - and therefore is a much better predictor than opinion polls.
This recent Republican surge could be due to the number of terror alerts following on from the DNC. Or their policy of targeting the Amish. Then again, the Amish don't have phones so I'm not sure how they'll be polled....
Bush will win.
Revenge of the Sith will be decidedly average.
Ben will get a job.
I calls it as I sees it.
posted by Searlo @ 3:40 pm
2 comments
2 Comments:
Dave will secretly love ROTS, and bow and scrape to the true believers.
You may have noticed that the notes to the graph clearly state:
Remember that after some event is in the news, it takes several days before polls taken after it are reported.Well, the day the DNC starts (the marked point on the graph), Kerry has around 288 votes. Shortly after the convention is over, Kerry spikes up, then there's a counter-spike for Bush, then it settles down -- at 307 for Kerry.
How exactly, do you interpret this as the Republicans doing well?
What they've done very well is to spin the whole question of Kerry's "convention bounce", first by raising expectations of how high it would be, and then by looking for it too soon after the convention was over.
Now that sufficient time has passed, you can see the results of the Kery bounce in (1) his increased favorables in the internals of all the polls, and (2) the fact that in 13 different polling circumstances (9 polling organizations, 5 polls involving likely voters and 8 involving registered voters) Kerry leads in 11 of the 13 and is tied with Bush in 1. In only 1 poll (the CNN/USAToday/Gallup, which was the first released after the convention), does Bush, the incumbent president, with all the advantages that brings, lead, and then by only 4 points, while Kerry's leads average almost 5 1/2 (5.42).
This is a bounce. It may not last long, but it most assuredly is a convention bounce, and it just amazes me that the "bounce boat" having apparently sailed too soon, very few in the media are paying attention.
IN any event, for those interested, I've posted my latest survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites here.
Executive summary: of the 30 sites surveyed, 22 show Kerry winning, and 5 others show him ahead. Three sites show Bush winning. The approximate average of all sites is Kerry 296 - Bush 242.
And, just to note it, this is a distinct improvement over his standing in the survey I took just before the convention.
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